How I learned to see the Reno market through the eyes of Bear Grylls

Image by: Discovery.mae

These past three years in our market has not been unlike Bear Gryll's three-day ordeal at the African Savanna.

Bear Grylls is the 'host' of Man Vs. Wild. He is an ex-British Army Special Air Service who is lurched (usually from a helicopter) in the middle of nowhere to survive unforgiving temperatures with nothing more than a knife and if he's lucky, a flint.

Not unlike the story of our real estate market the past three years -the best times of my real estate career.  As JoAnne Correira beautifully painted it to me two years ago, "this market will separate the men from the boys".

But like in any hard times there will always be the Crème brûlée dessert after enduring Aunt Bernice's burnt ribs.  With some graphs and statistics straight from MLS (see below) and our group poised to have one of our best sales years ever. The market could be heading for a possible bottom in demand this year and prices not long after that.

Here are some of the evidences:

Homes under contract in Reno in the last six months (weekly)
(click here for full-page view)

Homes Under Contract and SOLD in Reno in the last six months(weekly)
(click here for full-page view)

Median price of homes in Reno in the last six months (weekly)
(click here for full-page view)

If I only let the burning life in me eager only to see the 'bright lights' without considering the other side would be disservice to you.

I owe it to you my dear reader to also show you the possible chink in the furniture:

1.  Seasonal increase.

Solution: This coming winter will be the ultimate judge as to whether it will stay above Jan 21,2008 possible demand bottom.

(click image for full-page view)

I leave with you the words of David Ogilvy:

"I notice increasing reluctance on the part of marketing executives to use judgement; they are coming to rely too much on research, and they use it as a drunkard uses a lamppost for support, rather than for illumination."

Use it for illumination dear friends.  And you'll go far.

Comments

[Ryan Pedro]

What a breath of fresh air to see some action in our market.

When do you think the prices will follow suit?

[Ian Mariano]

Isn't it? that's how I felt the first time seeing these graphs.

The prices in my estimation will hit bottom in a year's time that is if the demand continues to go up.