How I Accidentally Found The Reno Real Estate's Market Bottom: I need your help...

'A beautiful accident'  Photo by: Marta P.

I was doing my usual Reno market updates when I accidentally found something what appears to be the best evidence that will prove that the reno real estate market bottom is not far from from us.

Every month I make an update on what the Reno real estate is doing.  I usually choose the two-year option. Meaning,  all the statistics in our market in the past two years will be presented to me.  But this time I accidentally chose the six-month option rather than the two-years. 

What happened was I saw in detail what was happening in the Reno real estate market for the past six months rather than two years.  I got the surprise of the year when I saw what this presented to me.  I saw clearly how the demand of homes in Reno was going up since Jan 21,2008.

(notations added)
 Click Here For Full Page View

                                       ------------------------------------------

"I understand the possible howls in the air: ' O come on, Realtors, of course, you would always see the bright side'."

                                       ------------------------------------------

Before seeing this, I thought that the increase in demand in our market for the past few months was only because we were approaching summer.   'And  this is nothing new', I though to myself.

But notice what the graph clearly shows us:  Even before summer hit, demand was already picking up!
 

This I failed to see on the two-year graph:

 Click Here For Full Page View

I understand the possible howls in the air: ' O come on, Realtors, of course, you would always see the bright side'.

And with all the respect for Lawrence Yun, I can't blame the people for doubting the statements issued from our industry. Most of us have been incorrectly 'predicting' the market.

But Know that Ian and I wrestled with this data for two weeks. And we're still not content with what we think this might be. That's why I made this blog post.

Help me. What's your interpretation? Let's wrestle with the data. And maybe just maybe we can all get something from this and pass this much needed information to our clients especially buyers.

Comments

[Jerry]

You think this might finally be it?

I can't wait for the prices to bottom!

Thanks for giving me a mind job(positive that is)

[Ian Mariano]

If the demand continues to go up Jerry I think we might be heading for the big bottom.

hehe. Your welcome.

[Leslie Henderson(taken from chasenation.com)]

Joe,

I don't think that history is going to reveal the future for this one instance in time. Simply because there has never before been the combination of the mortgage mess AND a declining market. I think that history might predict the recovery process, but the unknown factor is how long the recovery will take.

[Joe Salcedo]

Leslie,

You raised a very very interesting point.

Though I would add that I will still largely cling on to the market's opinion(history) simply because there is no better alternative as far as I know.

What we're going through right now is definitely bigger but not necessarily vastly different from what has happened in the past.

My simple formula in what we're going through right now is: Study what happened in the past,how long it took before we got up again etc..and then prepare a worst case scenario but hope for the best.

As Jim Stockdale, a prisoner of war in the Hanoi prison for seven and half years puts it:

"Confront the brutal facts but never lose hope that in the end you will prevail"