Reno Home Blog

To my future trumpeter swans

Photo by: tootdood

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"I understand the temptation is strong.  After a string of bad relationships the next available beauty surely seems like Phoebe Cates."

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Here's a preview of what goes on in my head before I wrote this post:

'are you just trying to be controversial (ouch)?

who are you to say that?

you think you're so smart huh?

what makes you think your better than the experts in the newspapers- in your industry?

how old are you again?

I have no bones to pick with anyone.  I'm really happy with what's going on in my business.  I have two deals in escrow and hopefully three more on the way. 

After a luke-warm January,February and March; April feels too good to be true.

I understand the temptation is strong.  After a string of bad relationships the next available beauty surely seems like Phoebe Cates. 

Let's not fall in love blindly my friends. It's too early in the ballgame. We can't relate the sudden pick up in the market with the overall health of our real estate market.  Especially in this time of the year (I'm going to show you why).

Let's not unreasonably blunt the painful edge of truth:  the market is not better than last year.

Quite frankly, I really don't think we are going through anything special aside from the fact that the weather is getting warmer and buyers are going out, business as usual, winter they hibernate; Summer they play.

No more no less.

Arrggggh! I hate it when I say that, I sound like one of those people.  I really don't enjoy giving you bad news.  This is my livelihood you know, I have no other job.  And just like you,  I yearn for the market to bounce back. 

But hold on to the truth we must.

This graphs gives me a bit of a relief:

Click Here For Full Page View  

To my future trumpeter swans: 'Never tire to question until the point of genuine understanding.'

Chase Agent's Reno & Tahoe Blogs

Photo by: six_austins

Dare I confess that in the spirit of sibling rivalry I have left a trail of frigid relationships with my fellow chase bloggers.

"The hardest thing to is to be humble in the presence of a great idea", somebody once said.

Painfully true.

It is hard to be genuinely interested in other people's labor of love (other chase's blogs) when I often spend three hours per business day managing this blog- aiming to catch the next big wave so that everybody in the office can proclaim, " whow look at Joe and Ian Fly!"

"Instead of spending too much time trying to be interesting, invest more time being interested", said John Gardner

I proudly present to the world my sibling's weblogs:

• Bruce and Sandy Soli's Tahoe Homes Blog

I fancy their 'best buy list'.

• Mark Buergin and Lexi Cerretti's Lake Tahoe Homes and Real Estate Blog

'For sale by owners' can advertise their homes for free-valiant idea.

• Diane Cohn's and Guy Johnson's Reno Realty Blog

I have been a fan since December 2005.

• Michelle Plevel's Reno Real Estate Logic

Take charge. Opinionated. Informed.

Subprime crisis: A Solution Suggested By Martin Feldstein

"There is a story about man building his house on sand. There are storms, and it falls apart. Another man builds his house on solid ground, and it remains..." Photo by: N*E*N*E*H 
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"There has to be something out there that makes a bit of sense."

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You want to know what's happening but you get lost in the sea of relative 'what I thinks'. 

This is what I feel about the solutions popping up to solve the Mortgage Crisis.  There are so many people claiming to have 'the' answer. 

Truth be told, It gives me a headache reading their sea of proposals; picking out those that are tarnished with self and those that are objective and genuinely aiming to help.

The sub prime crisis has been a tragedy for many (more on this below).  There has to be something out there that makes a bit of sense.

My uncle would gleefully tell me, 'Oh ian you don't have to carry the world on your shoulders, that's not your problem.' 

But  it is, you see. 

First, this is cousin of my livelihood. Second, it breaks my heart to see this happen again if we don't learn from this tragedy. Third, as a citizen of this country it kind of makes sense to know what's happening.  I mean it's nothing big really, Bear Sterns stock just plummeted to $4.81 today.  Their stock was $84 last Wednesday.  The stock's 52 week price high was at  $159.36.  They are the fifth biggest investment house in the nation alongside the likes of JP Morgan Chase, Lehman Bros.  They were bought by JP Morgan Chase Today for $236.2 million; 'the price represents roughly 1 percent of what the investment bank was worth 16 days ago.'

And the most heart-breaking of all: the lives of the $14,000 employees, many of which are part-owners of the company,retirement and savings deeply affected if not completely erased.

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"The reality is that I can't escape the sub-prime mess."

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And it all stemmed from the Sub-prime mess.  We over-extended ourselves.  We over extended the people.  We built a house on sea sand.

The reality is that I can't escape the sub-prime mess. 

I was part of the problem.  I should've known better and for that I am deeply sorry.  How I wish this will never happen again. 

And for the people, do your research, it's not as hard as you think.  It makes it doubly hard for us when you come to us with minds already made up.  Do ask questions, be open to other ideas but ultimately you will decide on what you think is the best option. 

Your responsibility is to learn and understand as much as you can, be forewarned that you will hear things that you don't want to hear but it is imperative that you still consider it.  Take a few days off and then decide.  It will make a world of difference I promise you.

As to the first point I raised.
I've been scanning some proposals about the sub-prime mess.  So far this has made the most sense for me. 

It was written by Martin Feldstein, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Reagan, is a professor at Harvard and a member of The Wall Street Journal's board of contributors.
Here's an excerpt:

               "The federal government would lend each participant 20% of that
individual's current mortgage, with a 15-year payback period and an adjustable interest rate based on what the government pays on two-year Treasury debt (now just 1.6%). The loan proceeds would immediately reduce the borrower's primary mortgage, cutting interest and principal payments by 20%. Participation in the program would be voluntary and participants could prepay the government loan at any time."

Here's the complete article originally published by Wall Street Journal:Martin Feldstein

Darling...

Photo by: Henny G

I might as well confess to you my dear readers. I am falling in love with it all over again.  I neglected it for three years.  Conventional and Subprime loans just seemed so much more attractive, plain sailing, uncomplicated, undemanding (Or so I thought) .

Like a ship in the night I quietly marooned my numero-uno.

It was a fun three years.  But reality set in.

It's not all as it promised. 

Now I'm paying my dues and I want the real thing. 

As John Eldredge would tell me, "You want the Bahamas, she's the North Atlantic."

FHA loans would you take me back?

Aaron Dehart shares his thoughts on FHA loans:

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"FHA loans are designed for first time homebuyers who have little or no money down."

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• FHA aka government loans have made a tremendous comeback in the Real Estate and Lending world.

• FHA loans are designed for first time homebuyers who have little or no money down. Although it is not a requirement from FHA to be a first time homebuyer, I highly recommend them for anyone who is putting down less than 10% on a home.

• FHA has no “Pricing adjustments” which means unlike conventional loans, FHA loans will not punish a borrower with a higher rate for having lower credit scores, a higher loan to value, or increased debt to income ratios.

• FHA Loans are traditional full documentation loans, no stated income or no documentation loans. The borrower must provide proof of income, assets, and any other documentation that is required by underwriting. The borrower must prove that they have the ability to repay the loan. There are no pre-payment penalties, which will make it much easier on the borrower to refinance or sale the home if the need arises. Moreover, FHA makes it extremely easy for a client to refinance from an FHA-to-FHA loan, also known as a streamline refinance, requiring very little or minimum documentation from the borrower, since it is just a change in the rate.

• FHA is probably one of the only avenues left that will allow 100% plus financing. There are numerous government-funded programs that assist in down payment and closing cost that help people realize the dream of home ownership. Grants, bonds, private money seconds are a few of the sources that can accomplish this and are not hard to attain.

My friend, the bottom line is very simple; if you are a first time homebuyer or have little or no down payment and have had credit issues in the past, FHA loans will be the best source for you to attain home financing.

They are simple, black and white, make sense loans with make sense underwriting that have helped hundreds of thousands of people attain their dream.

Aaron DeHart

Loan Officer ProStar Home Loans

985 Damonte Ranch Pkwy Ste.120 Reno,NV 89521
775-284-STAR (7827)
aarond@prostarhomeloans.com

www.prostarhomeloans.com

Introduction to Reno Home Blog: Why we exist

Hello there. My name is Ian Mariano, I am the research director for Joe Salcedo Group.  We help people buy and sell homes.  Our broker is Chase International Real Estate, and we are here in our  Reno office at 985 DAMONTE RANCH PKWY. Reno,NV

Welcome.

In today's video. I just have one goal: My goal To give you a bird's eye view on the Reno Real Estate Market in the past two years. What happened in the past two years?We will go through the number of homes for sale(the supply) and number of homes SOLD(the demand).

Joe and I learned the hard way, as many of you know,that when we learn from the mistakes of yesterday.  We will be better equipped for the opportunities and challenges of tomorrow.  History is a marvelous teacher.

Supply and demand.

Investopedia defines supply and demand as, “ perhaps one of the most fundamental concepts of economics-the backbone of a market economy. “

I see Supply and demand as the ultimate  judge who decides on where our real estate market is heading.

So Let's look at what happened in the Reno Real Estate Market in the past two years.

The Reno market topped on July 0f 2005. As you can see here. You can see a graph of this in our blog, under the Reno-Sparks market dated on Sept 21,2007.  The title of the post is, “How to win in the Reno Sparks Real Estate Market:”

You see here that in was on July 2005 that the Reno market reached its absolute peak.  At the same time when the National housing market reached its highest point- Reno was right there beside them.

By December 2005 we were at the lowest point  in inventory of homes in Reno.  the lowest number of homes we've had in the last two years- that was in December 2005: We had 2,444 homes in the market.

Let's see what happens next.

Reno experienced an incredible increase from December 2005, the lowest point. All the way to August of 2006.  .  From 2,444 homes we shot up to 3,712 homes.  That's an increase of 51% in inventory in a span of nine months. 

As we can see in the Number of Homes Sold Graph.  You can see that in June we had a two-year high in Homes Sold: 288 homes. People were very much buying into the market Unbeknownst to many the market already topped almost a year before.

Let's see what happens next.

Than from August 2006- February of 2007, inventory goes down dramatically. 45% to be exact. Sellers became hesitant towards the market, and with good reasons.  We were leading up to the winter months. And by this time Sellers were beginning to hear some negative news about the real estate market.

But let's go back to the Demand Side.  From august 2006- Feb 2007. as we can see in the graph. Buyers were still out there.(repeat 2x)

Moving on. February 2007- August of 2007.  Inventory went up 33%.  And let's see what the buyers were doing.  They were actually still pretty active in the market.  Even going up a few points.

So for the big question of the day: where are we right now Ian?

From August 2007- November 2007.  Inventory has gone down for four consecutive months, we have significanty less homes in the market.

Let's see what's happening on the Demand side.  From august 2007- December 2007.  Demand has gone down as well- not a good sign.

In an ideal market(this was revised from what you see in the video), Inventory is keeping it's grounds,sellers are confident and then the Homes SOLD are going up- the demand side. 

But we see glimmer of hope.  From November –December of 2007 we saw an increase of 10.2% in demand.  Let's wait and see if it will continue to go up.(we now know that this did not continue to go up) But as of now. Reno Real estate market is still in a downward trend.

I hope you got something out of this video recap of our market..  I don't profess to be the ultimate 'expert' in the Reno real estate market. I am not. The reason I say this is if you have something to add, you disagree with something, you agree with something and want to add a comment.  Let's hear them now. Cos'  That's where I learn. We cannot do it alone.  A lot of people have sent me emails asking some specific market questions.  That's great.     I'm learning a lot from you guys.

So that's it for today.  You can find a written version of this video under the category Reno Market.

Until my next video. Take care and make it a great day.

Reno Real Estate Market Recap: 2005-2007

Reno Real Estate Report: 1993-2005

Reno real estate market: 1993-2005

"History shows us that when a real estate bear market bottoms out it looks more like an L-shaped pattern.  Gradually going up in value."

Hello, My name is Ian Mariano.  I am the head of market research for Joe Salcedo Group.  Our broker is Chase International.

Welcome.

In this video I aim to do two things.

1. To show you the appreciation of home prices in Reno from 1993-2005. .

2. I want to give you a realistic guess on how much your home would appreciate in the coming years. We will base this 'guess' from the 13-year history of the Reno real estate market.
   
   I have been asked a number of times on what I think will happen in the Reno real estate market market after it reaches a bottom. Though no one exactly knows what the future holds. I do believe that  History gives us clues. And I want to show that to you today.

I've also heard people say  that once the real estate market reaches a bottom, right after that, it will go up again(Forming a V-shaped patter) similar to what we've seen happen in 2002-2005.  In my opinion this is a very dangerous assumption.  The history of the real estate market does not support this theory.   History shows us that when a real estate bear market bottoms out it looks more like an L-shaped pattern.  Gradually going up in value.

Let's look at the numbers.  Here you have the Median Sales Price  for Reno,Sparks & the North Valleys. By the way,This data was produced by the Bureau of business and economic research.

Notice that from 1993-2001 we didn't have very big numbers. Six percent increase in 1993 by 2001 we saw a 4.1 % increase in home values.  And it's the same story with Reno's neighboring cities of Sparks, North Valleys. In fact when I computed the average home appreciation from 1993- 2001.  All three cities were in the 4% growth/year . But something happened from 2002-2005. we went up three hundred percent across the board.

In a span of four years  we soared to 18-20%/ home appreciation per year in  Reno, Sparks & North Valleys.  From four percent to an unprecedented twenty percent in the top of the market.

So for the question of the day. Where are we right now? Since 2005- to the present, as many of you know that the market is going downhill.  We have yet to find a bottom. But once we reach that lowest point.  It is dangerous to live from this position. Meaning,  We won't be having 18-20% appreciation in the next ten years minimum.  It is more wise to expect our homes to go up in the 4-7% range per year. And even this won't happen right after the market bottoms out. History shows us that It takes a while to go up again even to 4-7% /year.


For more information, you can find us at www.renohomeblog.com