My First Ever Rant

I just finished reading a real estate article from one, if not the most visited website in the world.  The writer gave out a 'top eight list' of strategies for sellers and buyers this coming 2008.

While I have no qualms on his list of strategies for sellers.  One of his eight strategies for buyers I could not welcome with open arms: 

"Don't bank on further market drops. If you have the means, pounce on that oh-so-sweet deal. This cycle appears to be at or near the bottom. You can't confidently count on the market sinking any lower, even though it may."

Here is my main reason:

• The company who sponsored the article is, according to their site:  The Web's leading aggregator of financial rate information.  Though I am not in the position to judge their ultimate motive.  It is safe to assume that they benefit from new buyers especially leads coming from the internet.  And I doubt if the average consumer would notice this because the article is signed by an 'expert' complete with their first and last name.   

By and large it is still very difficult to pinpoint the difference between an editorial without any bias(supposedly),say for example from Associated Press or an advertisement like,say, in this case, from a very reputable internet website signed by their resident writer which could have some bias to what they want people to do. Sponsored.

"Now, 'Ian- Holier than Thou-Mariano' what are you trying to say? heck,you could've been doing the same thing in this website for all we know?!" 

Yeah I could, who knows maybe I did imply it in one way or another from our previous posts.  But at least people already have,one way or another, a slanted impression on Real Estate Agents.  I think it's safe to say that asking a Realtor,  'is it a good time to buy a house'  is bound to get the same answer 99% of the time.

(shameless plug: I noticed Joe is not afraid anymore to say the big "if you think you'll be able to get 8-10% appreciation anywhere before 2009, it won't happen, market is currently going down" *that is when they do ask what's happening in the market. Sadly, many won't even bother)

But in the case I mentioned above, this was supposed to be a neutral site.  Many  people actually believe in everything they say, word per word, no questions asked.  Would it be overly-dramatic of me to declare that I sense considerable danger in how this could subtly mislead the majority?  I am well aware of our human nature that we would gladly accept other's opinions (and reject mountains of evidence) rather than doing our own investigation.  It's just part of being human.  Who wants to map their way to Caligaraya forest of North Dakota.  When you can ask the sometimes misleading google-maps.   

But I am pleading, be kind to yourself and let's all be students of the market.  Rather than just listening blindly on expert's advice It is so much better that way.  Less tears.  Better harmony with your spouse.   More time with your children.   43% less burden on your already mounting worries.  Life is hard enough as it is.

It's not as hard as you think folks.  I promise you.  And those so called 'experts', believe me many of them are not.  Or even if they are, they could very well be slanted in so many subtle ways.  That's how the system works.  It's how they were set up.  I can't blame them.

I remember the great growth stock investor and one of the most successful investors of our time by the name of William O'Neil. (of Investor's Business Daily) He said that the best money managers he rarely sees on TV being interviewed, 'because they are too busy making important decisions.'

And haven't we forgotten the Tech Bubble Burst when companies in the brink of bankruptcy, and experts blindly advising us," good buys, cheap buys"  Buy on the dips-yeah, all the way to bankruptcy alright.

And haven't you noticed how CNBC is uber positive in majority of their views on the market. (don't get me wrong, I do learn a lot from that station.) But maybe,just maybe, because they have to.  Who wants to hear a story that could instill the BIG F---- F.E.A.R.
Who wants that!?  When our country is founded on the premise that the more we consume the better for Uncle Sam. 

Though some have graciously labeled me as a pessimist of the real estate market. I am not.  I refuse to be one.  (though I admit it really is tempting sometimes) But I am not bound on blind optimism either.  We need to call things and events as they are.  To have the courage to be objective even if it means swallowing our egos because it's not going as we planned. 

There is a time for everything.  Time to hope and a time to fear.  Knowing the difference can make you at the very least $10,000.  As William O'Neil beautifully puts it, " people hope when they should fear and fear when they should hope"

Let's be students of the market. 

It is so much better that way.

Comments

[Scott in Hooterville]

RE: My First Ever Rant...

The Ranter sees a similar view as this ranter...

Can't tell you how many people call contrarian (thinking) people PESSIMISTIC !!
Contrarian often refers to someone who could get in the way of the gravy train that's about to run off the tracks!

I say I'm not pessimistic, but more likely REALISTIC... But always willing to learn...

As the Ranter related I too have found CNBC to be a great overall education but they, like most all media, are slanted toward an obvious cause of viewership... That viewership being, in general, the potential investor (and advertiser) who doesn't want to really see the potential pitfalls! Many people are still buying the Builders stocks and Financials when even the experts on CNBC are saying they're nuts... I will say that at least they give some (1 out of 5) bearish guests the stage though - and generally they're shut down - but again an education none the less... One of my biggest hopes is that we will eventually teach our children financial classes (please, please) along with Shakespear and Ancient History... Or, maybe classes on thinking and researching for oneselve instead of buying just one so called expert's thoughts!

Ironically, I believe the bears are EVENTUALLY mostly right... Just a matter of when, how far down the road? A house has turned mostly into an investment, and unlike our parents houses, not mainly a roof over our head... And we're paying a price for that speculation now! And what potential buyer that can read a newspaper, turn on a computer, does not know that RE dollar values are heading south? (I know, blame the media)...

And I have a fear that our economy could unwind like the economy of Japan has... It took 15+ years to start to return to normalcy in their RE and financial markets downturn even with the offer of 0% interest rates (which no one wanted to take)...

I know, not in America!!

[Ian Mariano]

Scott,
This is an interesting quote:

Investopedia Commentary

"A contrarian investor believes that the people who say the market is going up do so only when they are fully invested and have no further purchasing power. At this point the market is at a peak. On the other hand, when people predict a downturn, they have already sold out, at which point the market can only go up."

Amen to this:

"One of my biggest hopes is that we will eventually teach our children financial classes (please, please) along with Shakespear and Ancient History... Or, maybe classes on thinking and researching for oneselve instead of buying just one so called expert's thoughts!--Scott"

I can't wait to have this for our children.